@InProceedings{MarengoOrsiniANSHGACHT:2015:EsInAn,
author = "Marengo Orsini, Jos{\'e} Antonio Marengo and Alves, Lincoln Muniz
and Nunes, Luci H. and Souza, Celia R. de Gouveia and Harari,
Joseph and Greco, Roberto and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e
Cruz de and Chan, Chou Sin and Hosokawa, Eduardo K. and Tabuchi,
Ernesto K.",
affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais
(CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}
and {} and {} and {} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)}",
title = "Projeto metr{\'o}pole: uma estrutura integrada para analisar a
vulnerabilidade e a capacidade adaptativa {\`a}s mudan{\c{c}}as
clim{\'a}ticas e eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do n{\'{\i}}vel do mar de
comunidades no Brasil, Reino Unido e Estados Unidos",
booktitle = "P{\^o}steres",
year = "2015",
organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Internacional de Climatologia, 6. (SIC)",
keywords = "Eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do N{\'{\i}}vel do Mar, Mudan{\c{c}}a
Clim{\'a}tica, Extremos clim{\'a}ticos, regi{\~o}es costeiras,
adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Sea level rise, climate change, climate
extremes, coastal regions, adaptation.",
abstract = "As zonas costeiras de todo o planeta, por seu car{\'a}ter de
intera{\c{c}}{\~a}o complexa entre processos atmosf{\'e}ricos,
marinhos e terrestres, s{\~a}o normalmente as {\'a}reas mais
afetadas pelas mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas e seus efeitos.
Diante do grande potencial para impactos ambientais decorrentes
dessas mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas em curso e suas
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras (aumento na frequ{\^e}ncia,
intensidade e magnitude de eventos extremos), {\'e} cada vez mais
premente analisar como os indiv{\'{\i}}duos em diferentes
espa{\c{c}}os urbanos e situa{\c{c}}{\~o}es
socioecon{\^o}micas diversas est{\~a}o expostos e s{\~a}o
vulner{\'a}veis aos perigos e riscos em variados graus de
intensidade. Neste contexto, {\'e} extremamente importante
aprimorar e criar novas ferramentas que permitam
avalia{\c{c}}{\~o}es detalhadas desses impactos e
forne{\c{c}}am bases cient{\'{\i}}ficas para tomadores de
decis{\~a}o, implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de pol{\'{\i}}ticas
p{\'u}blicas e a gest{\~a}o integrada da zona costeira. O
desenvolvimento dessas ferramentas remete {\`a} abordagem inter e
multidisciplinar, que pode ser constru{\'{\i}}da por meio de
indicadores que possibilitem facilitar mudan{\c{c}}as na
percep{\c{c}}{\~a}o, no entendimento, nas atitudes, nos valores
e nas tomadas de decis{\~a}o sobre os riscos clim{\'a}ticos
locais, bem como nas estrat{\'e}gias de mitiga{\c{c}}{\~a}o e
adapta{\c{c}}{\~a}o a serem adotadas pelos gestores
p{\'u}blicos, comunidades e organiza{\c{c}}{\~o}es sociais. O
Projeto METR{\'O}POLE (derivado do F{\'o}rum Belmont),
desenvolvido em parceria entre Brasil, Estados Unidos (EUA) e
Reino Unido (RU), foi concebido nesse contexto. A hip{\'o}tese do
projeto {\'e} de que a percep{\c{c}}{\~a}o e o entendimento do
risco das mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas podem ser mais bem
assimilados quando produzidos com bases cient{\'{\i}}ficas
integradas a um contexto social, pol{\'{\i}}tico e cultural
local co-participativo. Neste sentido, est{\~a}o sendo elaboradas
simula{\c{c}}{\~o}es computacionais (modelagens) de
cen{\'a}rios futuros baseados em s{\'e}ries hist{\'o}ricas de
dados sobre oscila{\c{c}}{\~o}es do n{\'{\i}}vel do mar,
temperatura e frequ{\^e}ncia de eventos extremos (ressacas do mar
e mar{\'e}s altas), al{\'e}m de proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es
clim{\'a}ticas de alta resolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o segundo os
cen{\'a}rios propostos pelo IPCC. As modelagens incluem
tamb{\'e}m diversos dados socioecon{\^o}micos na escala
municipal e ferramentas de visualiza{\c{c}}{\~a}o espacial das
proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es de eleva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do n{\'{\i}}vel do
mar, risco econ{\^o}mico associado e vulnerabilidade de pessoas e
bens, para cen{\'a}rios em 2025, 2050, 2075 e 2100. Os resultados
e algumas a{\c{c}}{\~o}es adaptativas est{\~a}o sendo
submetidos {\`a}s comunidades locais (Santos no Brasil, Broward
County-Florida nos EUA e Selsey no RU), por meio da
aplica{\c{c}}{\~a}o de question{\'a}rios, em workshops com
ampla participa{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos diversos atores sociais
envolvidos. A parceria estabelecida com as prefeituras municipais
facilitar{\'a} a internaliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos resultados e a
implementa{\c{c}}{\~a}o de novas pol{\'{\i}}ticas
p{\'u}blicas e legisla{\c{c}}{\~o}es ambientais mais adequadas,
permitindo melhor gest{\~a}o da zona costeira. ABSTRACT: The
coastal areas around the world are likely to be among the most
affected by climate change and its impacts due to a complex
interplay among atmospheric, marine and terrestrial processes, as
well to local exposure of coastal areas in terms in infrastructure
and occupation. . These regions face significant environmental and
socio-economic impacts that are already experiencing extreme
events and from climate change in the future (frequency of intense
storms events and along with sea level rise lead to more coastal
flooding). It is important to understand that communities in
different urban areas in coastal regions and from different
socio-economic activities face different levels of risk and
vulnerability. In this context, it is extremely important to
improve and create tools that allow stakeholders to access
reliable science-based information to help them respond to the
risks of climate change impacts, and to assess opportunities for
adaptation in coastal areas. In general, the development of these
tools require the use of a cross-cutting interdisciplinary
scientific approach, which can be built through indicators that
can allow easy changes in perception, understanding, attitudes,
values and make decisions at the local level, as well as
adaptation strategies to helps policy makers, communities and NGOs
to cope with sea level rise. The METROPOLE project (funded by the
BELMONT Forum) represents a partnership between Brazil, UK and USA
to investigate impacts of sea level rise and climate change in
some three coastal regions around the world. The hypothesis of the
project is that risk knowledge is best understood as being
co-produced by science and by the social, political and cultural
context. The research team will develop downscaled climate models
and sea level rise increase scenarios for communities in Brazil
(Santos-SP), the United Kingdom (Selsey-West Sussex), and the
United States (Broward County-Florida) and engage stakeholders and
policymakers in participatory planning meetings, to analyze the
social and cultural factors that impact decision making and
regional adaptive capacity. For each site, we will co-produce
scenarios using state-of-the-art visualization tools developed in
Brazil and the US to sea level rise and impacts on coastal
infrastructure. Data include changes in sea level, temperature,
storm frequency, precipitation and other variables in the past 100
years and high resolution (10km) projections under the IPCCs 5th
AR scenarios. The tools integrate scientific and economic data for
the smallest local area, and illustrate potential impacts on
infrastructure, health, economic risk, adaptation options, and
cost-benefit analyses over time. The partnership with the
municipal governments will facilitate the internalization of the
results and the implementation of public policies and appropriate
environmental legislation and allowing the municipals to better
manage their coastal areas.",
conference-location = "Natal, RN",
conference-year = "13-16 out.",
targetfile = "1_marengo.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}